Two months ago, Galaxy Research gave the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act a coin-flip’s chance of becoming law in 2026. Now, the firm puts those odds at 10%.
How the numbers moved
The CLARITY Act’s probability arc tells a familiar story of Capitol Hill optimism followed by arithmetic reality. Galaxy Research’s estimates peaked at 75% shortly after the Senate Banking Committee’s markup on May 22, 2026, when the bill cleared committee with a 15-9 vote. That number slid to 60% in early June, then to 50% by late June, and fell further to 30% after a combined legislative text was released on July 24.
Mid-August brought the sharpest single drop: from 30% to 10%.
The core problem is time. The Senate returns from its August recess on September 14, leaving lawmakers with an estimated two to three weeks of usable floor time before the legislative calendar effectively closes for the year.
