The window for Congress to deliver a sweeping digital asset regulatory framework in 2026 is getting smaller by the week. Galaxy Digital, one of the more closely watched institutional voices in crypto policy analysis, just cut its probability estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law this year from 75% down to 60%.
The culprit isn’t opposition so much as the calendar. The Senate faces an August recess starting in late July, and the list of unresolved policy questions is long enough to make even optimists nervous.
What changed, and why it matters
Galaxy’s head of research Alex Thorn laid out the shift in a note on Friday.
“On May 22, we raised our estimate of the probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 75%, up from the 55% we published the morning of May 14’s Senate Banking markup. We are now lowering that estimate to 60%.”
