Five weeks ago, Galaxy Research pegged the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at 75%. Now that number sits at 50%, a dramatic slide that reflects a growing pile of procedural obstacles standing between the crypto industry’s most significant market structure bill and the finish line.
The downgrade, Galaxy’s second in June alone, reflects no merged bill text, no scheduled Senate floor vote, and no firm commitments from Senate leadership.
A bill that won the House and stalled in the Senate
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 passed the House on July 17, 2025, with a bipartisan vote of 294-134. The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill on May 14, 2026, with a 15-9 vote. It then landed on the Senate legislative calendar around June 1.
Galaxy’s probability estimates tell the story of a slow-motion confidence collapse. Pre-May 14, the firm estimated a 55% chance of passage. After the committee vote, optimism surged to 75% in late May. By June 9, that had already slipped to 60%. Now it’s 50%.
