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Canada's economy is doing better than it has in years by this measureGDP per person is once again on the riseLast updated 30 minutes ago You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.While overall GDP reading is slipping lower, GDP per person is on the rise. 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The 0.1 per cent decline in GDP in the first quarter shocked observers who had been expecting growth closer to 2 per cent. ‘Historically unusual,” is how Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, described it.Breaking business news, incisive views, must-reads and market signals. Weekdays by 9 a.m.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Posthaste will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againLuckily, economists say there is more to a recession just than two quarters of negative growth — namely the 3 Ds — depth, duration and dispersion.This decline is not even close on depth — amounting to just 0.6 per cent annualized over the two quarters, “barely a scratch in GDP terms,” said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in a note.In the past three Canadians recessions, outside the pandemic, the average decline at the weakest point was 5.3 per cent.Nor is weakness widespread across the economy. The trade war has hit manufacturing, trade and real estate hard, but other sectors like finance, resources and health care are growing, said Kavcic.Though exports are down, domestic demand has been climbing, and consumer spending has continued to rise.Duration, he concedes, is getting close. The Canadian economy has been soft since the start of the trade war in early 2025, posting three negative quarters out of four.However, there is one key variable in this equation that should not be overlooked and when viewed through its lens paints a very different picture of Canada’s economy, say economists — population.Since the federal government cracked down on immigration after the post-pandemic boom, population has actually declined in Canada over the past two quarters.So while the overall GDP reading is slipping, GDP per person is on the rise, a welcome change from a few years back when the per capita measure was nose-diving.GDP per capita fell by almost 2.5 per cent in just over a year in 2022 and 2023, and plunged again in 2024, even as headline GDP was growing. The latest data showed GDP per person picked up by an annualized 0.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2026.“That’s a better outcome for how individual households experience the economic backdrop compared to, for example, the ostensibly respectable GDP increases in 2023/2024 that actually represented persistent declines on a per-capita basis,” said Janzen.Make no mistake, the Canadian economy remains fragile and faces more uncertainty in coming months as review of the Canada-United-States-Mexico Agreement gets underway.But as economists at National Bank of Canada said Friday: “We are not ready to bandy about the ‘R’ word, at least not yet.”Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.Looks like the loonie is a petrodollar no longer.When oil prices fell on hopes of a U.S. deal with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, the Canadian dollar held up surprisingly well. That’s because the currency has a new commodity anchor — gold, says National Bank of Canada chief economist Stéfane Marion.While the correlation between the Canadian dollar and WTI has weakened, the correlation with bullion has surged to the point where it now even surpasses the link with Canada-U.S. 2-year yield spreads, his chart shows.“Oil still matters for Canada, but in the current market configuration, gold appears to be the more relevant marginal driver, helping explain why CAD is appreciating even as crude retreats,” said Marion.“Gold’s rally is doing more of the heavy lifting for CAD.”Calgary home sales for MayToday’s Data: United States ISM manufacturing, construction spendingEarnings: Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.Caroline, 62, is single and planning for retirement in three years, but she still has a $300,000 mortgage coming up for renewal next year. She is prepared to take on a part-time job after she retires but would prefer not to have to work at all. Should she delay retirement? Find out what Family Finance has to say.Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country’s most important sectors.Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com.Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don’t miss the business news you need to know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.