Posthaste: Recession, what recession? Canada's economy is doing better than it has in years by this measure

Is a technical recession enough to spur the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates?

Canada's GDP contracted 0.1% annualized in Q1 2026, the second consecutive quarter of negative growth, missing the 1.5% consensus forecast amid drops in exports (-4.1%), business investment (-3.6%) and federal spending (-2.4%). Economists now consider a Bank of Canada rate cut more likely than a hold, signaling potential easing that CFOs and treasury teams should factor into FX exposure, debt refinancing windows and capex planning for H2 2026.