This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel’s continued military presence in southern Lebanon and insistence on security arrangements tied to Hezbollah’s disarmament have kept near-term withdrawal probabilities low among traders. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire took effect April 16, 2026, and was extended 45 days in mid-May to allow further talks on withdrawal timelines and stability measures, with the next round scheduled for June 2-3. Israeli forces have maintained or expanded buffer positions, conditioning any pullback on Lebanese enforcement steps against the group rather than a fixed date. These dynamics, alongside periodic airstrikes and stalled progress on core demands, have shaped market pricing that assigns limited weight to completion by late June or July. Upcoming diplomatic sessions and any shifts in Lebanese or Hezbollah positions could influence sentiment before the extended truce period concludes.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
