## Market Snapshot
The market for “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?” is currently priced at 6.5% YES, a slight increase from 6% 24 hours ago. In contrast, the “Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?” market remains very low at 0.1% YES.
## Key Takeaways
– The capture of Beaufort Castle suggests increased Israeli military engagement in Lebanon, potentially delaying withdrawal scenarios. – The escalation appears consistent with reduced likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah. – No significant impact is observed on markets concerning Iranian military actions against neighbors, indicating the focus is on Israeli operations in Lebanon.
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