IDF captures Beaufort Castle, signals escalation in Lebanon conflict

## Market Snapshot

Markets currently show 6.5% probability for Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon by June 30, 2026, down from 10% a day ago. The likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah by May 31, 2026, stands at 0.6%, declining from 3% over the last 24 hours.

## Key Takeaways

– The capture of Beaufort Castle by the IDF suggests an escalation in Lebanon, consistent with a decrease in the likelihood of an Israeli withdrawal. – This development appears to lower the probability of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah. – Regional tensions may increase, consistent with heightened risk of Iranian military action against neighboring countries.

## Article Body