US-Iran ceasefire unravels, leading to rising tensions and oil prices. Ceasefire extension by June 7 now at 40.5% YES, down from 67% yesterday.

Iranian FM and parliament speaker arrive in Doha for US-Iran deal talks. Ceasefire through May 31 at 92.5% YES, May 27 at 96.4% YES.

Nikkei reports Iran will reopen Hormuz 30 days after a US deal; ceasefire extension by June 7 at 73.5% YES, Hormuz normal by May 31 at 3% YES.

Iran accuses the US of ceasefire violations amid new strikes. Ceasefire extension by May 26 drops to 1.7% YES, June 7 remains at 63.5% YES.

Iran announces a new peace deal with the US, causing oil prices to fall below $90. Crude oil reaching a new all-time high by May 31 at 0.5% YES.

IRGC retaliated against a US base amid rising tensions. Ceasefire extension by June now at 42.5% YES, while nuclear deal by May drops to 8.6% YES.

US-Iran ceasefire unravels, leading to rising tensions and oil prices. Ceasefire extension by June 7 now at 40.5% YES, down from 67% yesterday.

Iran escalates tensions with missile attacks on Kuwait. Airspace closure by May 31 at 12.7% YES; US ceasefire extension by June 7 at 34.5% YES.

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US and Iran reached a tentative deal pending Trump's approval. Agreement or ceasefire by June 7 at 53% YES.

US and Iran reach a tentative deal to extend the ceasefire and start nuclear talks. Ceasefire extension by June 7 at 67% YES.

US and Iran are "very close" to a ceasefire extension deal, boosting market confidence; ceasefire extension by June 7 at 59% YES.

US warns Iran of military action if ceasefire deal is rejected. Invasion before 2027 at 16.5% YES; new agreement by June 7 at 59.5% YES.

Iran emphasizes missile power over dialogue, reducing confidence in US-Iran agreements. Ceasefire extension by June 7 at 59.5% YES.

US-Iran peace deal includes a $300 billion reconstruction fund, boosting ceasefire extension by June 7 to 59.5% YES.

Oil prices drop as US-Iran ceasefire talks progress. New all-time high for crude oil by May 31 at 0.5% YES, by September 30 at 22% YES.

Iran rejects Trump's terms for lifting the Hormuz blockade. Ceasefire by June 7 at 64.5% YES; nuclear deal by June 30 at 45.5% YES.

US and Iran are close to finalizing a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire. Ceasefire extension by June 7 at 64.5% YES.

Iran conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping. Iranian regime falls by June 30 at 2.4% YES; US-Iran ceasefire extension by June 7 at 56.5% YES.

US imposes new sanctions on Iran, increasing geopolitical tensions. US-Iran deal by June 30 at 7.5% YES.

US-Iran nuclear talks stall as Iran insists on enrichment rights. New agreement by June 7 at 52.5% YES, end of enrichment by December 31 at 56% YES.