## Market Snapshot
The US-Iran ceasefire extension market (June 7 deadline) is priced at 73.5% YES, up from 67% 24 hours ago. The Strait of Hormuz normalization market (May 31 deadline) sits at 3.4% YES, down from 4%.
## Key Takeaways
– Pricing in the June 7 ceasefire extension market appears consistent with growing participant confidence that a formal agreement is approaching, following the Nikkei report. – The Hormuz normalization market’s sub-4% pricing suggests participants view full traffic restoration by May 31 as highly unlikely, consistent with the reported 30-day post-deal timeline. – A 52-point gap between the May 26 (21%) and June 7 (74%) ceasefire sub-markets suggests markets view the most probable announcement window as falling after May 26.
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