## Market Snapshot
The market regarding Trump’s agreement to Iranian demands by June 30 is priced at 32% YES, reflecting mixed sentiment. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire extension by June 7 is currently at 28% YES, down from previous highs. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market is at 0.1% YES, as the deadline has passed.
## Key Takeaways
– The tentative ceasefire extension appears to be consistent with scenarios where Trump may agree to certain Iranian demands by June 30. – The likelihood of a US-Iran agreement on a ceasefire extension by June 7 suggests increased market pricing for a potential announcement. – The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz does not affect the market for traffic normalization by May, as the deadline has passed.
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