US-Iran deal could ease energy prices, reopen Strait of Hormuz

## Market Snapshot

In the “Iranian Demands Trump Will Agree To by June 30” market, the probability of Trump agreeing to various demands ranges from 5.5% to 66.0% YES. The “Strait of Hormuz Normal Traffic” market shows 11.5% YES for a return to normal traffic by June 15. The “WTI Crude Oil Prices in May 2026” market is priced at 0.2% YES for hitting $150.

## Key Takeaways

– Markets suggest potential de-escalation with the US-Iran deal could increase the likelihood of Trump agreeing to certain Iranian demands by June 30. – The possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz appears supportive of normalizing traffic by mid-June, reflecting increased likelihood in the market. – Pricing implies that a US-Iran deal may lead to a decrease in crude oil prices, reducing the probability of WTI hitting $150 in May 2026.

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