## Market Snapshot Iranian demands Trump will agree to by June 30 is priced at 24% YES. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15 is priced at 12% YES, and by July 31 is priced at 64% YES. These odds reflect recent developments in US-Iran relations.
## Key Takeaways – The announcement of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appears to suggest progress in US-Iran negotiations. – Pricing suggests increased confidence in scenarios where traffic normalizes by July 31. – Markets appear to be reacting to potential de-escalation in maritime hostilities, consistent with a resolution of some Iranian demands by June 30.
## Article Body Iran is reportedly finalizing a deal with the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime passage that has been under a US naval blockade and Iranian transit restrictions. This development is part of the broader 2026 conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel over the strategic waterway. The proposed agreement, while not a comprehensive peace settlement, would extend the current ceasefire and is seen as a step towards de-escalating maritime tensions. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital shipping route for global oil supply, and its reopening could have significant implications for international trade and regional security.
