US and Iran near deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz, lift oil sanctions

## Market Snapshot

The “US Iran Agreement/Ceasefire Extension” market shows a 70% YES probability for a new agreement by May 26. Meanwhile, the WTI Crude Oil price market indicates only a 1% probability of prices reaching $150 in May 2026. These movements reflect recent news about a potential US-Iran agreement.

## Key Takeaways

– Markets suggest increasing probability of a US-Iran agreement by May 26, consistent with the recent news report. – Pricing indicates a significant decrease in expectations for a spike in WTI Crude Oil prices, consistent with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. – The news appears irrelevant to the “Iranian Demands Trump Will Agree To” market, as it does not involve Trump.

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