## Market Snapshot
The US-Iran ceasefire extension market (May 26 deadline) is priced at 13.5% YES, down sharply from 72% 24 hours ago. The July 31 Hormuz normalization market holds at 69.5% YES, while near-term Hormuz transit sub-markets have fallen significantly from prior-day levels.
## Key Takeaways
– Pricing appears consistent with YES outcome support for longer-dated Hormuz and ceasefire markets, suggesting participants view the MOU framework as a potential catalyst beyond the immediate May 25–26 window. – The sharp collapse in near-term ceasefire pricing (72% → 13.5% for May 26) suggests markets interpret “if finalized” language as inconsistent with imminent formal announcement. – The 60-day nuclear negotiation window described in the MOU appears consistent with the June 7 ceasefire sub-market, currently priced at 56.5% YES.
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