## Market Snapshot
The market for a US-Iran agreement or ceasefire extension by June 7 is currently priced at 59.5% YES, up from 36% 24 hours ago. The market on Iran surrendering enriched uranium by December 31, 2026, shows a 49.5% YES, increasing from 46% the previous day.
## Key Takeaways
– The reported $300 billion reconstruction fund appears to suggest significant progress in US-Iran negotiations, consistent with a potential ceasefire extension. – The inclusion of a reconstruction fund suggests that broader negotiations involving troop withdrawals could be underway, supportive of outcomes by June 30. – The fund’s announcement may indicate progress in discussions about Iran’s nuclear program, suggesting a higher likelihood of uranium surrender by year-end.
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