In recent weeks, social media has been filled with recurring complaints from families who consider themselves financially stretched but have found themselves classified in deciles 9 or 10, the highest categories in the National Socioeconomic Single Data (DTSEN) system. As a result, they may have lost access to many social assistance programs, including the KIP Kuliah scholarship program.Our analysis of National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) microdata suggests a more nuanced explanation: Many of these cases are predictable consequences of how targeting systems work.
Challenge of targeting
The government has allocated around Rp 508.2 trillion (US$28.8 billion) for social protection in 2026, while subsidies and compensation for state-owned enterprises selling products below market prices had reached Rp 233 trillion in the first half of the year alone.
Yet large spending does not automatically mean accurate targeting. More than one-third of households in the highest expenditure group still use subsidized 3-kilogram cylinders of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), while around one-third of the very poorest households received no social assistance in 2025.
The challenge is not simply how much the government spends, but how effectively support reaches those who need it most.
