Nigeria’s economic reforms have improved indicators under severe pressure three years ago. Foreign reserves are stronger, oil production has recovered, the foreign-exchange market is more coherent and inflation has moderated. Food, transport and other essentials remain expensive, purchasing power is weak and public services remain inadequate.
That gap is reviving the political case for cheaper petrol ahead of the 2027 elections. But restoring a universal fuel subsidy would address only one part of the cost-of-living crisis while reintroducing a fiscal burden Nigeria has spent three years trying to eliminate. The priority should be to use the gains from stabilisation to reduce living costs and raise household incomes.
The contrast with May 2023 is substantial. Nigeria then operated a foreign-exchange system in which the official rate was about N461/$ while the parallel-market rate averaged roughly N738/$. Foreign reserves were below $35bn, inflation had risen above 22 percent and crude production had fallen to around 1.2m-1.3m barrels per day. Petrol subsidies were consuming public resources while the country remained heavily dependent on imported refined products.
“Nigeria needs a more focused approach to household relief. A credible social-protection system should provide targeted assistance to vulnerable households based on transparent eligibility criteria, with independent auditing and regular reviews.”
