TL;DRThe Brexit referendum turns ten today. An NBER study estimates the UK economy is 6-8% smaller than it would have been, with investment down 12-13% and productivity down 3-4%. Seven prime ministers have held office since the vote, and 57% of Britons now say leaving was wrong.
Ten years ago today, 52% of the British electorate voted to leave the European Union. The decade that followed delivered seven prime ministers, a permanently weakened currency, and an economy that a landmark study now estimates is between 6% and 8% smaller than it would have been had the country voted to remain.
On Monday, Keir Starmer became the sixth prime minister to leave office since the referendum, resigning after less than two years amid a Labour leadership challenge from Andy Burnham. No occupant of 10 Downing Street has lasted longer than three years in the post-Brexit era, and one, Liz Truss, lasted 49 days.
The price tag
A working paper published last week by the National Bureau of Economic Research, led by Stanford professor Nicholas Bloom, puts the cumulative cost of Brexit at 6% to 8% of GDP. Investment fell 12% to 13%, employment declined 3% to 4%, and productivity dropped by a similar margin.
