Global oil supply will fall by 4.3 million barrels daily this year. Renewed Middle East hostilities are disrupting supplies and deepening the oil market deficit. This year's expected supply drop compares with earlier forecasts and is significant. The International Energy Agency expects a deficit of 1.8 million barrels daily over July-September. However, supply is projected to outstrip demand by 2027.

The IEA expects oil demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026 as high fuel prices and Strait of Hormuz disruptions weigh on consumption.

IEA forecasts a sharper oil supply deficit amid the Iran conflict. Crude oil reaching a new all-time high by December 31 at 12.5% YES.