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Iran warns US ceasefire may end if Lebanon attacks continue
Iran warns US ceasefire may end if attacks on Lebanon continue. Ceasefire extension by June 7 at 13.5% YES.
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US-Iran draft agreement includes end to Lebanon war, signals regional de-escalation
US-Iran draft agreement signals end to Lebanon war. Ceasefire extension by June 7 at 69.5% YES; Israel-Hezbollah peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 9.3% YES.
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Iran rejects Trump's terms for lifting Hormuz blockade amid nuclear tensions
Iran rejects Trump's terms for lifting the Hormuz blockade. Ceasefire by June 7 at 64.5% YES; nuclear deal by June 30 at 45.5% YES.
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US and Iran nearing memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire
US and Iran are close to finalizing a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire. Ceasefire extension by June 7 at 64.5% YES.
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Iran conflict triggers major energy crisis, disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping
Iran conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping. Iranian regime falls by June 30 at 2.4% YES; US-Iran ceasefire extension by June 7 at 56.5% YES.
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Trump considers US-Iran ceasefire extension, nuclear talks proposal
Trump considers a ceasefire extension and nuclear talks with Iran. Ceasefire by June 7 priced at 54.5% YES, troop withdrawal by June 30 at 39.5% YES.
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White House stance dims US-Iran deal prospects by June 30
White House stance reduces chances for US-Iran agreements. Nuclear deal by June 30 now at 47.5% YES.
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US imposes new sanctions on Iran amid regional tensions
US imposes new sanctions on Iran amid regional tensions. Diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 now at 28.9% YES.
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Pentagon chief warns US ready to resume strikes on Iran amid stalled talks
Pentagon chief warns of potential US strikes on Iran amid stalled talks. Ceasefire extension by June 7 at 47.5% YES.
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Iran ready for diplomatic talks to end 2026 conflict, says President Pezeshkian
Iran is ready for diplomatic talks to end the 2026 conflict. Ceasefire extension by June priced at 45.5% YES.
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Missile attack on Kuwaiti base escalates US-Iran tensions amid stalled talks
Missile attack on a Kuwaiti base escalates US-Iran tensions. Iran closes its airspace by May 31 at 4.5% YES; US announces ceasefire extension by June 7 at 46.5%
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US warns Iran of military action if peace plan conditions rejected
US warns Iran of military action if peace plan conditions are rejected. Ceasefire extension by June now at 37.5% YES.
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Iran refuses uranium surrender, stalling US agreement talks
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium, hindering US agreement talks. New US-Iran agreement by June 7 now at 33.5% YES.
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Iran removes nuclear issue from talks, no final agreement reached
Iran removed the nuclear issue from negotiations, signaling reduced chances for agreements. New US-Iran agreement by June 7 at 33% YES.
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Iran ready to abandon nuclear program, US Treasury Secretary announces
Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program, boosting market confidence. US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 35.5% YES.
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Trump toughens Iran deal terms, impacting US-Iran agreement odds
Trump toughens Iran deal terms, reducing agreement odds. Ceasefire by June 7 at 38% YES, Trump agreeing to Iranian demands by June 30 at 22% YES.
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Iran, US negotiate 60-day ceasefire extension, Strait of Hormuz reopening
Iran and the US negotiate a 60-day ceasefire extension. Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30 at 41.5% YES.
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Israel expands military actions in Lebanon, impacting Iran peace deal prospects
Israel expands military actions in Lebanon, reducing chances for a peace deal with Iran. Peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 10.1% YES.
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US military strikes in Iran, Lebanon amid ongoing peace negotiations
US military strikes in Iran and Lebanon occur amid peace talks. Permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah by May 31, 2026 at 0.1% YES.
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Iran confirms ceasefire with US includes Lebanon, signaling regional diplomacy
Iran confirms ceasefire with the US includes Lebanon, signaling regional diplomacy. Ceasefire extension by June 7 at 19.5% YES.
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Iran halts negotiations amid Israeli military actions in Lebanon
Iran halts negotiations amid Israeli military actions in Lebanon. US-Iran agreement by June 7 at 18% YES.