## Market Snapshot
US-Iran agreement or ceasefire extension by June 7 is currently priced at 18% YES, down from 32% 24 hours ago. The Israel-Hezbollah permanent peace deal market is at 0.1% YES, while the Israel-Iran peace deal by June 30 is at 6.2% YES.
## Key Takeaways
– Iran’s decision to cease negotiations appears to have decreased the likelihood of a US-Iran agreement or ceasefire extension. – The ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah suggest a lower probability for a permanent peace deal. – Tensions over potential maritime strait blockades may indicate a decreased chance for an Israel-Iran peace deal.
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