US maintains naval blockade on Iran as Trump refuses concessions. Normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by July 31 at 43.5% YES.

A U.S. Army helicopter monitored ships amid ongoing blockade enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz. Transit of 20 ships by May 31 now at 46.5% YES.

Iran says Strait of Hormuz transit will normalize once security is restored, but its new permit regime and proposed $1/barrel toll suggest permanent control, not a return to free…

Iran imposes a $2M toll for Strait of Hormuz transit, reducing ship transit odds. 20 ships transiting by May 31 now at 46.5% YES.

Physical crude markets have also firmed again in recent days, offering a reminder of the wider supply tightness that’s hitting the global oil industry.

Iran plans to reveal its strategy for the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions with Israel. Traffic normal by July 31 at 42.5% YES.

Iran conflict boosts coal demand as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Traffic returns to normal by July 31 at 42.5% YES.

Gulf freight rates rise amid ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Average daily transits of 0-10 by May 31 at 88% YES.

Qatar halts gas exports as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Traffic normalization by July 31 at 42.5% YES.

Trump and Xi agree to keep the Strait of Hormuz open amid US-Iran tensions. US-Iran nuclear deal by June at 21% YES.

US Central Command redirected 81 vessels and disabled four in its Iran blockade. Trump restarting Project Freedom by May 31 at 37.5% YES.

Strait of Hormuz faces potential closure, impacting oil stockpiles. Traffic normal by July 31 at 42.5% YES, Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed by May 31 at 5% YES.

Iran controls parts of the Hormuz Strait, disrupting shipping. Average daily transits by May 31 at 86.5% YES for 0-10 ships.

Trump discusses resuming combat operations against Iran. Iran closes its airspace by May 31 at 39.5% YES; US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 31.5% YES.

Iran warns of military action in the Gulf of Oman. 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 at 43% YES.

Iran proposed a long truce and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in US nuclear talks. Nuclear deal by June at 24.5% YES, traffic normalization by May at 5.2% YE

Iran proposes a truce and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic returns to normal by end of May at 5% YES.

US maintains naval blockade on Iran as Trump refuses concessions. Normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by July 31 at 43.5% YES.

CENTCOM redirects 85 vessels amid US-Iran tensions. Average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz below 10 by May 31 at 85.5% YES.

Iran tightens control over the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions. US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 48% YES.

Trump delays Iran strike at Gulf states' request. Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by July 31 at 45% YES.