Iran warns US as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor

## Market Snapshot

The market for “Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?” is currently priced at 43% for a YES outcome. This reflects a slight decrease from 44% over the past 24 hours and 46% over the past week.

## Key Takeaways

– Iranian warnings of military action in the Gulf of Oman appear consistent with a decrease in the likelihood of uninterrupted ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz. – The ongoing naval blockade by the US and heightened tensions suggest continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz traffic, which may impact the normalization of shipping by July 31. – Markets suggest that the risk of escalation could further decrease the chances of meeting shipping benchmarks by May 31.

## Article Body