Iran deploys submarines to Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions

## Market Snapshot

The “Trump Project Freedom Restart Dates” market shows a 2.3% YES pricing for May 15 and 37.5% YES for May 31. The “Strait of Hormuz Ship Transit” market indicates 47.0% YES for 20 ships transiting by May 31. The “Strait of Hormuz Traffic by May” market is priced at 0.2% YES for May 15 and 6.5% YES for the end of May.

## Key Takeaways

– Iran’s deployment of submarines appears to increase the perceived risk of maritime disruption, consistent with decreased YES pricing in ship transit markets. – The likelihood of Trump restarting Project Freedom by May 31 appears to be supported by the increased tension in the Strait of Hormuz. – Market pricing suggests a low probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal levels by mid-May, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions.

## Article Body