## Market Snapshot
“Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?” is currently priced at 10% YES, down from 12% 24 hours ago and 68% a week ago. “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?” stands at 0.4% YES, slightly up from 0% a day ago. “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” is at 15.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
## Key Takeaways
– Market pricing suggests a decrease in the likelihood of 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 due to increased tensions. – The missile strike appears to reinforce the naval blockade, suggesting that traffic normalization in the Strait remains unlikely by the end of May. – The possibility of U.S. military escalation towards Iran appears to have a moderate increase in probability, according to market pricing.
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