Iran conflict boosts coal demand as Strait of Hormuz remains closed: WSJ

## Market Snapshot

The market for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31” is priced at 42.5% YES, down from 46% 24 hours ago. For the “Strait of Hormuz traffic by end of May” scenario, the market is at 4.2% YES, previously at 6%. Meanwhile, the market on “Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement by May 31” reflects a 19.5% YES probability, down from 24%.

## Key Takeaways

– The ongoing Iran conflict appears to be reducing the likelihood of normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by both the end of May and July 31. – The WSJ report suggests that the closure of the Strait has led to a resurgence in coal demand, impacting related energy markets. – Pricing trends indicate that market participants view the potential for a US blockade lift announcement by May 31 as increasingly unlikely.

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