Anthropic just put a number on the AI hype train, and it’s a big one. In the company’s most aggressive economic scenario, US GDP could surge 32.4% above a no-AI baseline by 2030, hitting $44.4 trillion at 2025 price levels.
That would mean annual growth rates touching 15% after 2027.
Three roads diverge in an economic model
The analysis lays out three distinct scenarios for how AI reshapes the American economy, each pegged to a different speed of adoption and deployment.
The modest scenario projects just a 1.6% GDP uplift, bringing output to $34.1 trillion by 2030.
