AI is evolving faster than most people, even those building it, could even fathom, and its impact on the workforce and the economy is, at this point, really anyone’s guess.
Researchers from The Anthropic Institute are offering a few possibilities: They have built a nuanced framework looking at how AI might impact jobs, unemployment, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth between now and 2030.
They posit three potential scenarios for an AI-augmented future: “modest,” “substantial,” and “extreme,” and have created an interactive tool where users can explore how productive, or disruptive, AI will become in the workplace, based on their predictions of how they will work in 2030.
“Which of these worlds we are heading toward may become clearer within a year or two, and preparing for potential disruption seems to us the prudent course,” the researchers noted.
The goal of their work is to inform debate as AI becomes more powerful and capable. “AI is likely to reshape the US and global economies in profound ways in the coming decade, but how, and by how much, is extraordinarily uncertain,” they wrote.
