Could the ‘fourth best’ team in a World Cup group advance to the knockout stage?

Whisper it quietly, but when FIFA decided the World Cup should expand to 48 teams from 2026, they seemingly didn’t give too much consideration to the precise format.The switch to 48 was announced in 2017, and the initial plan was to have 16 groups of three teams each, with two sides progressing from each group. This format was deemed unsatisfactory for several reasons — the uneven schedule of matches, the risk of collusion in the final group game — and so six years later, FIFA confirmed there would instead be 12 groups of four teams each. Two qualify automatically. But to get from 24 to a workable bracket number, 32 sides, the eight best third-placed teams qualify too.This isn’t necessarily problematic in itself; a similar format was used between 1986 and 1994 in 24-team tournaments. But there’s an anomaly in that FIFA have also decided that teams level on points within groups will — for the first time — be separated by “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned” first and foremost.The table sorting the best third-placed sides, of course, will still be organised by “greatest number of points obtained in all group matches” and then “goal difference resulting from all group matches”.This could mean that a team theoretically has a record good enough to secure qualification, but for the use of head-to-head leaving them fourth (a position from which you cannot qualify) — while the third-place side that finishes ahead of them misses out (due to having a worse goal difference than other third-place finishers in other groups).First, using head-to-head rather than goal difference within groups means that some historic group standings would be different. For example, look at World Cup 2002 Group G.Croatia and Ecuador both finished on three points. Back then, Croatia were ranked ahead of Ecuador, because goal difference was the first separator. But they actually lost their final group game 1-0 to the South American side. And therefore, by 2026 rules, Ecuador would be ranked ahead of Croatia.