The looming El Niño could be bad – but much worse is to come

Waves supercharged by El Niño hit the California coast in 2016Eliason/Zuma Wire/Shutterstock

A “Godzilla El Niño” is coming, according to some newspaper headlines. The actual story is that there is an 80 per cent chance of an El Niño developing by September. Most models forecast a moderate event – but some suggest it could be very strong, perhaps even a so-called super El Niño.

That said, the bigger picture isn’t at all reassuring. However strong this El Niño turns out to be, we can be sure that even more damaging El Niños will occur in the coming decades. Even if future events are no stronger, their effects will be greater in a warmer world.

“Even a standard El Niño event in future will cause larger regional and global impacts,” says Axel Timmermann at Pusan National University in South Korea.

What’s even more alarming is that studies by Timmermann and others suggest that El Niños and La Niñas – known as ENSO events – will also become much stronger and start to drive weather in the Atlantic, too, amplifying their impacts.