US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Negotiations between the United States and Iran have advanced a tentative 60-day ceasefire extension and framework for future nuclear talks, yet core disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment limits, highly enriched stockpile disposal, and verification mechanisms remain unresolved as of the May 31 deadline. President Trump has emphasized that Tehran cannot acquire nuclear weapons, while Iranian positions have resisted comprehensive concessions on the program, leading traders to assign a 97.4% probability against any binding nuclear agreement materializing today. This reflects the procedural reality that nuclear specifics have been deferred rather than settled. A sudden final approval or memorandum announcement by U.S. officials could still alter the outcome before resolution.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETVolume$6,281,389End DateMay 31, 2026Market OpenedApr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.