## Market Snapshot
The market for “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31” is currently priced at 56.5% YES. In the “US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7” market, the odds stand at 48.5% YES. Meanwhile, the “US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31” market shows just 6.8% YES.
## Key Takeaways
– Tehran’s refusal to discuss uranium enrichment details suggests a firm stance against halting enrichment, which appears consistent with reducing the likelihood of an agreement by December 31, 2026. – The emphasis on ending the war may indicate a willingness to negotiate a ceasefire extension, suggesting a slight increase in the likelihood of an agreement by June 7. – Tehran’s stance on enrichment significantly lowers the chances of reaching a nuclear deal by May 31, 2026, indicating a core issue remains unresolved.
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