Iran plans uranium transfer to China, complicating US nuclear deal talks

## Market Snapshot

The market for “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31” is currently priced at 58% YES, up from 57% 24 hours ago. The “US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31” market stands at 12% YES, a rise from 9% the previous day. Meanwhile, the “US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31” market remains low at 0.7% YES, slightly down from 1% 24 hours ago.

## Key Takeaways

– Iran’s plan to transfer uranium to China appears consistent with continued enrichment, impacting the likelihood of Iran ending enrichment by December 31, 2026. – The move suggests complications for US-Iran nuclear deal negotiations, with market pricing indicating a decrease in the likelihood of a deal by May 31, 2026. – The explicit commitment not to deliver uranium to the U.S. may indicate a significant decrease in the probability of the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, 2026.

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