US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent tentative agreements between US and Iranian negotiators center on extending the existing ceasefire by 60 days and initiating talks on Iran's nuclear program, without resolving core issues such as highly enriched uranium stockpiles or enrichment limits. President Trump has yet to approve the memorandum, while Iranian officials have signaled no firm commitments on nuclear concessions and continue to assert rights to peaceful enrichment. With the June 30 deadline less than a month away and substantive negotiations only now framed to begin, trader consensus reflects the compressed timeline and persistent gaps between the parties' positions on verification and restrictions.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETVolume$3,983,505End DateJun 30, 2026Market OpenedDec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.