Iran nuclear test before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment and conversion sites at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, substantially degrading Tehran's uranium enrichment capacity and related infrastructure. IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence indicate no resumption of enrichment activities or structured weaponization efforts since the strikes, with inspectors reporting limited access and no evidence of imminent nuclear explosive testing. Iranian officials have stated that enriched material remains under rubble at damaged facilities, while reconstruction at secondary sites proceeds slowly under heightened scrutiny. These developments sustain trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 faces significant technical and operational barriers.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETVolume$201,526End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedNov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".