This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a durable agreement on nuclear issues and Strait of Hormuz access anchor trader consensus against a U.S. invasion before 2027. The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury degraded Iranian military capabilities and leadership without committing ground forces for territorial control, aligning with stated objectives focused on eliminating threats rather than occupation. A subsequent ceasefire and indirect talks mediated by regional actors have produced reported progress on framework terms, with President Trump signaling openness to a deal while pausing certain escort operations. These diplomatic developments sustain the 83.5% implied probability for no invasion through the end of 2026.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETVolume$33,797,068End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedNov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
