Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.$7,552,483 Vol.Dec 31, 2026PolymarketDecember 31$579,848 Vol.7%$7,552,483 Vol.PolymarketDecember 31$579,848 Vol.7%This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US military operations against Iran, including strikes in late May 2026 amid renewed exchanges of fire, have occurred without a congressional declaration of war, consistent with the pattern since large-scale US and Israeli actions began in February. Ongoing indirect negotiations, mediated by Pakistan and Oman, focus on extending the April ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing Iran's nuclear program, with President Trump recently returning proposed deal text with revisions. Recent reports indicate progress toward a broader peace framework, though key differences persist on enrichment limits and security guarantees. Congressional actions, such as war powers resolutions, and scheduled diplomatic meetings could influence escalation risks or de-escalation timelines in the coming weeks. Trader assessments reflect these diplomatic and military dynamics.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETVolume$7,552,483End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedJan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."