## Market Snapshot The market for “Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?” is currently priced at 6.5% YES, reflecting a slight decrease from 7 days ago, which was 8%. The market for “Iran closes its airspace by May 31?” remains at 29% YES.
## Key Takeaways – The move in Congress to limit Iran war powers appears consistent with a decreased likelihood of a US declaration of war on Iran. – The potential passage of the War Powers resolution suggests a significant check on unilateral military actions by President Trump. – This development does not appear to impact the likelihood of upcoming US-Iran diplomatic meetings or Iran’s airspace closure.
## Article Body The US Congress is advancing a resolution aimed at limiting President Trump’s ability to engage in military action against Iran without explicit congressional approval. This comes as the Senate moves forward with a War Powers resolution, following previous unsuccessful attempts by both the House and Senate to restrict presidential war powers related to Iran. The resolution represents a significant political maneuver to curb potential military escalation by requiring congressional consent for any further military actions against Iran. Although President Trump may veto the resolution, its advancement underscores a growing congressional desire to assert legislative authority over war powers.
