Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990 while modernizing its arsenal through missile development, including a successful Sarmat ICBM launch in May 2026 and planned additional ICBM evaluations this year. The New START treaty's expiration earlier in 2026 has removed formal limits on strategic forces, prompting statements from Russian officials about readiness at the Novaya Zemlya site and conditioning any test resumption on U.S. actions. No explosive nuclear test has occurred, with Russian policy emphasizing response rather than initiation amid ongoing diplomatic and military posturing.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETVolume$1,375,450End DateMar 31, 2026Market OpenedMar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".