Market Snapshot
The “Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire” market is currently priced at 4% YES. The “Ukraine Peace Deal by June 30” market is priced at 4.4% YES, showing a slight increase from earlier levels. The “NATO x Russia Military Clash by June 30, 2026” market is currently priced at 1.8% YES, indicating a stable view of the risks.
Key Takeaways
Lithuania’s consideration of hosting US nuclear weapons appears to increase tensions between NATO and Russia.
The news suggests that the likelihood of a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by June 30 has decreased.
