$183,233,050 Vol.May 31, 2026PolymarketMay 26$17,725,097 Vol.8%May 31$52,265,990 Vol.33%June 7$731,272 Vol.42%July 31$2,059,712 Vol.70%June 15$2,742,774 Vol.52%June 30$13,936,050 Vol.58%December 31$4,717,365 Vol.82%$183,233,050 Vol.PolymarketMay 26$17,725,097 Vol.8%May 31$52,265,990 Vol.33%June 7$731,272 Vol.42%July 31$2,059,712 Vol.70%June 15$2,742,774 Vol.52%June 30$13,936,050 Vol.58%December 31$4,717,365 Vol.82%This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
