$14,019,245 Vol.May 23, 2026PolymarketMay 22$8,074,020 Vol.100%May 23$883,099 Vol.93%May 24$2,296,118 Vol.86%May 25$110,402 Vol.81%May 26$32,993 Vol.81%May 27$388,987 Vol.81%May 28$27,349 Vol.79%May 31$367,858 Vol.72%June 7$75,731 Vol.70%June 15$126,660 Vol.71%June 30$74,917 Vol.67%July 31$38,980 Vol.52%December 31$133,734 Vol.44%$14,019,245 Vol.PolymarketMay 22$8,074,020 Vol.100%May 23$883,099 Vol.93%May 24$2,296,118 Vol.86%May 25$110,402 Vol.81%May 26$32,993 Vol.81%May 27$388,987 Vol.81%May 28$27,349 Vol.79%May 31$367,858 Vol.72%June 7$75,731 Vol.70%June 15$126,660 Vol.71%June 30$74,917 Vol.67%July 31$38,980 Vol.52%December 31$133,734 Vol.44%This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
