## Market Snapshot
The May 25 and May 26 sub-markets for a U.S.-Iran agreement have collapsed to 8.5% and 16.5% YES respectively, down from 52% and 60% just 24 hours prior. The June 7 sub-market holds at 59% YES.
## Key Takeaways
– Pricing appears consistent with markets absorbing an explicit U.S. official statement that no deal will land on May 24 or May 25. – The sharp drop in near-term sub-markets suggests market participants view the Fox News report as high-impact confirmation of a delayed timeline, not a collapsed negotiation. – The June 7 sub-market’s relative resilience at 59% YES appears consistent with the characterization that 95% of substance is resolved.
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