## Market Snapshot
The May 26 sub-market for a US-Iran agreement sits at 16.5% YES, down from 60% twenty-four hours ago. The June 7 contract holds at 65.5% YES, suggesting participants view any resolution as more likely beyond the immediate window.
## Key Takeaways
– Pricing appears consistent with a significant deterioration in near-term deal prospects following Tehran’s public accusation that Washington reversed course on mutual understandings. – The May 25 contract at 9.5% YES suggests markets view an announcement within one day as unlikely. – The 49-point gap between May 26 (16%) and June 7 (66%) suggests participants view a catalyst in the intervening 12-day window as the more probable resolution path.
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