## Market Snapshot Near-term ceasefire extension markets have collapsed: the May 25 sub-market sits at 6% YES (down from 64% 24 hours ago), and May 26 at 14% YES (down from 70%). The June 30 nuclear deal market holds at 41.5% YES.
## Key Takeaways – Pricing appears consistent with markets interpreting the spokesperson’s “no agreement imminent” statement as a near-term resolution barrier. – The explicit confirmation that Iran is “not currently discussing nuclear issues” suggests the June 30 nuclear deal market may face further downward pressure. – The June 7 ceasefire sub-market at 57.5% YES (down from 86%) appears to reflect residual optimism that a catalyst may emerge within the next two weeks.
## Article Body Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated Sunday that while a framework has been reached with the United States, no agreement is imminent — and that Iran is presently negotiating an end to the ongoing conflict, not nuclear issues. The statement directly contradicts earlier remarks from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who had suggested a deal could be signed as early as Monday. The spokesperson’s comments represent an on-record clarification from Tehran that the two sides remain at an early structural stage. The revelation that nuclear discussions have not yet formally begun is a notable development given the June 30 deadline markets have priced in.
