US-Iran deal will not be signed today, official says, but progress reported

## Market Snapshot

The May 24 sub-market sits at 6.5% YES with hours remaining, while May 25 prices at 17.5% YES and May 26 at 23.5% YES. The June 7 sub-market holds at 70.5% YES, reflecting market pricing that any deal remains a near-term but not imminent outcome.

## Key Takeaways

– A senior US official’s explicit statement that no agreement will be signed today appears consistent with the May 24 sub-market resolving NO. – “Making progress” language suggests participants view continued diplomatic engagement as likely, supporting the longer-dated June 7 sub-market’s elevated 70.5% YES pricing. – Near-term sub-markets (May 25, May 26) appear to reflect residual uncertainty, consistent with vague but constructive official language.

## Article Body