Rubio says US-Iran deal could be signed as early as Monday

## Market Snapshot

The May 26 US-Iran agreement market sits at 15.5% YES, down sharply from 69% just 24 hours ago. The June 7 contract prices a YES outcome at 50.5%, also off from 85% the prior day.

## Key Takeaways

– Pricing appears consistent with markets treating Rubio’s statement as a partial recovery indicator after a steep 24-hour decline, though odds remain well below recent highs. – The gap between May 26 (16%) and June 7 (51%) suggests participants view a near-term deal as unlikely but consider a longer window more plausible. – Recent contradictory headlines — including Tehran’s claim that Washington “retreated” on key understandings — appear to have weighed heavily on short-dated contracts.

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