India is expected to get below-average monsoon rains this year with precipitation less than 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Friday, downgrading its earlier forecast for 92% LPA.Monsoon core zone, which consists of rainfed agricultural areas, is likely to get below normal rainfall with precipitation less than 94% of the LPA, the weather office said, sparking concerns about production of pulses and oilseeds during the main planting season that could have an impact on consumption and inflation.“Monsoon rainfall from June to September will be ‘below normal’ and is likely to be 90% of the long-period average,” M Ravichandran, secretary at the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said at a press briefing, citing IMD’s forecast.The government agency expects the seasonal rainfall to be less than 92% LPA over northwest India, less than 94% of LPA over central India and southern peninsula. However, northeastern India is expected to receive rainfall in the range of 94-106% of LPA.Advance of MonsoonThe Southwest monsoon is expected to touch the extreme parts of the south Indian peninsula and some parts of north east India in the next seven day, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD.EL NinoThe weather office said that currently, ENSO-neutral conditions are evolving toward El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific indicating the development of El Niño conditions during the SW monsoon season.Heatwave Days in JuneIn June, above normal heatwave days are expected over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. However, below normal heatwave days are expected in Rajasthan and Jharkhand.
India to get below normal rainfall with precipitation less than 90% of LPA: IMD
India anticipates below-average monsoon rains this year, with precipitation expected to be less than 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This forecast, downgraded from an earlier prediction, raises concerns for agricultural production, particularly pulses and oilseeds, potentially impacting consumption and inflation. El Niño conditions are also developing, contributing to the forecast of reduced rainfall.
India's IMD downgraded its 2025 monsoon forecast to below-normal rainfall at under 90% of LPA, from a prior estimate of 92%, with the rainfed agricultural core zone expected below 94% LPA. The revision signals elevated risk of reduced pulse and oilseed output during the main kharif season, with direct implications for food inflation and supply chain planning across agri-dependent sectors.
