A meteorological drought is staring at India this year as the weather bureau has further reduced its monsoon forecast to 90 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 87 cm, retaining the “below normal” category, with an error margin of ±4 per cent. In April, the forecast was 92 per cent of LPA.India Meteorological Department (IMD) has categorised monsoon rainfall between 90 per cent and 95 per cent as “below normal” and less than 90 per cent as “deficient” while “normal” has been defined as precipitation between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of LPA across the country.Releasing the second stage monsoon forecast for 2026, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General M Mohapatra said that the south, central, north-west regions of the country will have below normal rain, while the east and north east meteorological sub-divisionsmay have normal (94-106 per cent of LPA) precipitation in the June-September monsoon season. Normal to above normal rainfall is likely to be seen in some areas of north-west and eastern parts of south peninsula and adjoining areas of east-central India, he added.Quantitatively, the rainfall is likely to be less than 94 per cent in central and southern regions while mostly irrigated north-west India may have below 92 per cent of LPA.Mohapatra also said that the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ) consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in central India is likely to be below normal, or less than 94 per cent of LPA.On the outlook only for the month of June, he also said that monsoon rains may be below normal, while maximum temperature in most parts is likely to be above normal. “The average rainfall for the country as a whole during June 2026 is most likely to be less than 92 per cent of LPA of 165.4 cm,” he added.Also, normal to above normal rainfall is likely over some parts of north-west, south peninsula and isolated pockets of central India during June, the IMD DG said.In June 2026, above normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except some parts of Central, Northwest and East India, where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are very likely. Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except some parts of Northwest, Central and adjoining south peninsular India where, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are very likely.During June 2026, above normal heat wave days are expected over many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh and isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.However, below-normal heatwave days are likely over Rajasthan and Jharkhand next month, he added.Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. “The latest climate model forecasts indicate that the El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the south-west monsoon season. In June, El Nino may emerge, though it may be weak. But, by July-August, ENSO may transition to a moderate El Nino,” Mohapatra said adding a strong El Nino may happen after monsoon season.Another weather pattern that influences monsoon rainfall is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the sea surface temperature in Indian Ocean. The latest MMCFS forecast indicates that current neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season, he said.Asked on the impact of below-normal rainfall on agriculture, Earth Sciences Secretary M Ravichandran said that IMD can issue the forecast on weather based on which agriculture ministry will issue advisories. IMD will issue the forecast for the July rainfall in the last week of June, he added.Published on May 29, 2026